David and Goliath couldn’t do this game justice

Now that everyone’s bracket has folded into eighths, torn up, and thrown in the air we can all actually sit back and enjoy what should be a great NCAA Championship Final. This game could easily go down in folk lore with Lorenzo Charles and NC State, Harold Jensen and Villanova, or Danny and the Miracles as one of the greatest games/upsets in history, or it could be banished to the depths fugue with the likes of Duke/Michigan in 92’. But if this turns out to be a close game, regardless of the eventual winner, then both the film Hoosiers and the book “The Greatest Game Ever Played” will both have to be recalled and some of their text changed because we would have seen witnessed the next Queen Cinderella. Ok, now back to reality. Duke has done exactly what a top-seed needs to do to hoist the trophy, mainly play their best ball of the year right around tournament time. They have rolled some very tough, and not so tough teams over the past month including winning their conference tournament. The only two things that would concern me as a Duke fan would be that they may have played their best game of the year in the semis and can’t expect to shoot as well from 3 in the final as they did on Saturday (52%), and the tidal wave of momentum that Butler is riding coming into a final that is stationed six miles from their campus. If there is anyone who bought a seat over the past 12 months thinking their school would be there will be a Butler cheering fool come Monday night creating a very tough place to play, even for a school as season as Duke. That’s what makes the mathup worthy as something better than the cliché, and if the home town boys can pull of a miracle then we’ll need to create a new one. Can the Bulldogs pull off the upset? Let us know here and in any of the quick links.
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As if the tourney can any better, the regional finals present great matchups

(1)Duke vs. (3) Baylor -When the brackets were announced my pundits believed Duke had the easiest path to Indianapolis, even before the wrath of the upsets. Now the Devils are in position to make prophets out of them as only Baylor stands in their way with every intension of shaking up people’s brackets even more. Ironically, Duke’s victory over the “Hummeless” Boilermakers was their first over a team ranked higher than 5 since 2004, coincidentally their last appearance in the Elite 8. On the flipside, Baylor has got to be the most disrespected 28-win, 3 seed, in the past decade, The Big-12 has earned plenty of ‘street cred’ in this tournament placing two team in the final 8, and Baylor finished second to only Kansas (may they rest in piece), so they’re used to tough competition and we think they’re going to surprise Duke.

(5) Michigan State vs. (6) Tennessee – Now it’s official that both participants on one side of the final four will be at least a 5 seed, and these are not “George Masons” as the Spartans are the only Final Four team from last year that’s still dancing this year, and Tennessee has overcome numerous adversity, much of which was their own doing, but baring that hiatus where they certainly would have won more games during the regular season and they still won 28. Obviously, both teams come in riding a lot of momentum but have had their lapses in the tournament as well, as the Vols busted brackets with an upset over second-seeded Ohio State, hard to believe the way they barley beat a very mediocre San Diego State team by 3 in their first game. Meanwhile State had to overcome a 7-point halftime deficit against a very disciplined UNI team. This game’s tough to call as there not as polarizing as the other matchups in regards to a consensus favorite. We look for this one come down to the final possessions but think Tennessee might be a little light after they go to the bench and like State’s tournament experience to come through as they win a close one.

(2)Kansas State vs. (5)Butler – Coming off the game of the tournament, a double-overtime thriller against Xavier the only question here is how much gas will they have left in the tank. The advantage for the Cats is that Butler isn’t an up-n-down fast breaking team that will pressure them 94 by 50. However the BDogs have shown they can create problems of a different sort when their outside game is working. Very underrated for their balance, if Butler can build a lead they take KState out of their game but we like the Wildcats because of their multiple scoring threats and tenacity on the boards.

(2)West Virginia vs. (1)Kentucky – The only 1 vs. 2 matchup in any of the regional finals also looks like the best game. The question going into the tournament was how would the youth of Kentucky handle the pressure of the tournament, particularly when they faced adversity of found themselves down by double digits or in crunch time. Well to this point no one has been able to put them in either of those positions but the Mounties may be the team to do it. They have both the size to match UK and the leadership to pull them through down the stretch. Once again, they will only go as far as their guard play will take them and unfortunately the loss of Daryll Bryant will be very evident in this one. We like Kentucky.

Are slippers going to break tonight?

(12)Cornell vs. (1)Kentucky – this game simply comes down to who can enforce their will on the other. If the BRed can slow the game down and do what they’ve been doing all year by hitting better than 40% from beyond the arch, they’ll either be in the lead or very close at the end of the game and their Senior leadership will take over. Unfortunately, that’s too many ifs for a John Calipari coached team with a week to prepare we like Kentucky.

(5)Butler vs. (1)Syracuse – Normally Cuse’ would be in big trouble with their big man out of the picture in a sweet 16 game but Butler’s game isn’t with an inside presence but rather from outside so they won’t really be able to take advantage of the situation. Kinda the same scenario as in the other 1-seed game, as the underdog is going to have to shoot well from outside if they’re going to stay in this one. Another marquis coach with a week to prepare breaks another slipper. Our pick Cuse’.

(11) Washington vs. (2) West Virginia – Losing Daryll Bryant will have more of an impact that people think, as it’s a fact that point guard play is tantamount to a successful tournament run and now Washington has a substantial edge with Pondexter and Thomas being able to control tempo and more importantly on the defensive end. We like Washington to pull off the first upset of the Sweet 16.

(6) Xavier vs. (2) Kansas State – KState came into the dance the second hottest team in the state of Kansas and now carry the flag for both the state and the conference as their inter-state rival was upset last week. They are one of the most complete teams in S16 and their need to be as so is Xavier, who is making their third straight appearance in the Regional Semis. If either of these teams were playing someone else they would probably be favored but as they both got a bad draw we like K State.

Are the Cinderella’s really wolves in sheep clothing?

As we approach the Sweet 16 this weekend much of the banter focuses on the number of high seeds still dancin’ and how exciting this is and good for the tournament. Even the Wall St. Journal is getting into the mix with an article Tuesday commenting on how the UK/Cornell matchup as “extremes at work”. Is this really the case or was the selection committee too enamored by the names on the front of some jerseys and the pedigree that accompanies them? Let’s look at the four teams that are considered the Cinderella party crashers more closely, and see if they’re peaking at the right time or if have just done a good job of slipping under the radar.

St. Mary’s (28-5 seeded 10th) may be the only true Cindy as they’re most impressive victory just happened last weekend over Villanova, prior to that their biggest win was a 2-point loss against Vanderbilt at home back in November. I realize they did beat Gonzaga in the conference tournament but they had lost to them twice prior and possibly would have been shut out of the dance for a second straight year had they not won it. This year’s performance certainly bolsters their argument from last year. They say you can’t expect a team to win the tournament if they haven’t won six in a row all season, well that’s what makes the Gaels so dangerous is, after the afore mentioned loss to Vandy, they have gone on win streaks of 8, 5, 6, and 7(current streak). When they go on runs their as good as anyone and most importantly, believe they can win.

Cornell (29-4) Playing in the Ivy League comes with many stereotypes both positive and negative. On the positive side no one would ever doubt your Basketball IQ, won’t expect you to ‘beat yourself”, bet that you’ll shoot free-throws well, and lastly will circle the schedule as a W in advance. That presumption cost many teams dearly this year as the Big-Red compiled 29 wins, and the mistake the selection committee made when they made them a 12 seed. But don’t forget this is also the team that pushed Kansas to the limit in THEIR building, and while on the subject of winning streaks has won 10, 8, and 9(current) in a row this season. This is what’s known in forensic accounting as a gross mis-representation as 12 seed equates to being at BEST the 48th best team in the nation, and Cornell was ranked in the top 25 during the year and received votes at the end of the year. We’re not doing triangular arbitrage here guys, we’re playing hoop and their body of work spoke for itself. I just wish I would have put my money where my mouth is because those were some healthy money lines on the Red during the first two games.

UNI (30-4 seeded 9) Ya know the committee gets what they deserve on this one. THIS SCHOOL WON 30 GAMES! If the dance has shown us one thing year in and year out it’s how tough it is to win 6 in a row on a neutral court, and how exposed some teams are that never travel for a tough non-conference game and insist that anyone that wants to play must come to their gym. I don’t care if they played in division II 30 wins is impressive and should be considered a formidable opponent. What this team does have that might go unseen is their senior leadership which is necessary to run the gauntlet of the NCAA tournament. I’m not saying that an upset of top-seeded Kansas was foreseeable, but it shouldn’t have been a question in the second round.

Washington (26-9) Don’t say a word, I know under section 12.B.1 in the Fairly Tail Code a team from a “power conference” can’t be a Cinderella, but I didn’t make them an 11 seed, so they go into the lot with the others and therefore eligible for my argument. That said, what ever they were partying with in the committee room, it must have been strong for them to put UW, winners of the Pac-10 tourney, down at an 11, 44th best in the nation, despite winning 26 games. It’s a bad draw for West Virginia as you get lucky to play a #11 in the Sweet 16 and you gotta’ figure they’re gonna be a dear in headlights, but the Huskies have been there before and will not get stage fright.

How many of the “Cindy’s” do you expect to move on if any? Let us know here, and in any of the quick links: